Displacement and disconnection: the impact of violence on migration networks and highway traffic in Mexico, by M. Coscia & R. Gutiérrez-Romero, published in Spatial Economic Analysis.

This paper examines how violence impacts migration flows and the strength of migration networks across Mexico’s 2454 municipalities. Using a novel network algorithm and census data from 2005 to 2020, we detect structural changes in domestic and international migration beyond what net flows reveal. To identify causal effects, homicide rates are instrumented using variation in fuel prices and municipal distance to fuel pipelines, capturing exogenous shocks from large-scale fuel theft. Rising violence led to 1.12 million additional domestic emigrants, 50,200 fewer returnees from the United States, stronger emigration networks and reduced highway traffic linking violent areas to the rest of the country.