Carl Bergstrom visiting NERDS and SODAS

Carl Bergstrom in Copenhagen: two talks in August

We are delighted to host Carl Bergstrom, Professor of Biology at the University of Washington and member of the External Faculty at the Santa Fe Institute, in Copenhagen this August.

Bergstrom’s work spans evolutionary biology, epidemiology, network science, the science of science, and the spread of misinformation. During his visit he will give two talks: one on recent research into the incentives that discourage risky science, and one on a new bachelor-level course — and accompanying book — on learning and thinking in a world of large language models.

Both talks are open to all colleagues in the area. Join us!


Talk 1 — The impediments to high-risk, high-return research

Wednesday 19 August, 14:00
Auditorium, Statens Naturhistoriske Museum
Øster Voldgade 5, Copenhagen
(a reception with refreshments will follow the talk)

Scientific researchers may be driven by curiosity, but they are constrained by the realities of the scientific ecosystems in which they operate and motivated by the incentives with which they are confronted. We can use mathematical models of the research enterprise to understand how scientific norms and institutions shape the questions we ask, the efficiency with which we work, and the discoveries we make about the world around us.

In this talk I present a trio of mathematical models aimed at revealing why scientists are reluctant to propose and conduct high-risk research. In the first vignette, we look at how peer review filters — ex ante review, as for grant proposals, and ex post review, as for completed manuscripts — shape the types of questions that researchers pursue. In the second, we develop an economic “hidden action” model to explore how the unobservability of risk and effort discourages risky research. In the third, we look at how competition for high-profile publications, prizes, and jobs can induce risk-taking behavior.

Scientific norms and institutions are not god-given; we create and maintain them. If we can understand their consequences, we have the potential to nudge them in directions better tailored to our contemporary research questions and technologies.


Talk 2 — Modern day oracles or bullshit machines: how to thrive in a ChatGPT world

Friday 21 August, 11:00
Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), conference room CSS 1-1-12
Øster Farimagsgade 5, Copenhagen

Large language models (LLMs) have upended education. Students and faculty alike are struggling with the pace of change. We have developed a general education course, Modern Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines, for every college freshman and high school student wanting to reflect on what it means to be human in an LLM-infused world. The course takes a collaborative learning approach to a fundamental question grounded in the humanities: how can we learn and thrive with LLMs?

In this talk, I provide an overview of the course, discuss what we have learned about teaching undergraduates to think about what it means to be a learner, scholar, and human being in a ChatGPT world, and reflect on the challenges of teaching about this rapidly evolving technology.

Course website: thebullshitmachines.com


About Carl Bergstrom

Carl Bergstrom is a Professor of Biology at the University of Washington. Broadly, his research contributions are many, ranging from how evolution encodes information in genomes to how it moves, and distorts, across online networks. Bergstrom’s many research contributions include the Eigenfactor metrics for measuring the influence of scholarly journals, foundational work on the science of science and the incentives that shape research, and models of how misinformation spreads through social media and, more recently, through generative AI. He is the co-author of the book Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World. Bergstrom is an eager science communicator and many will recognize Bergstrom from his communication effort during the COVID-19 pandemic when he gained a wide following. Trained in evolutionary biology and mathematical population genetics, he earned his B.A. from Harvard and his Ph.D. from Stanford, and his work continues to cross the boundaries between the natural and social sciences.

NERDS Paper on Comparing the Italian and Danish Music Industries

Comparing the Italian and Danish Music Industries With Network Analysis by L.M. Benetti, D. Fejerskov-Quist, & M. Coscia, published in Complexity

We build music band collaboration networks based on bands sharing artists playing for them. We do so for both Italy and Denmark. The paper shows that the two networks have similar structural properties, with clusters based on genres and temporal similarity. There are also differences, showing that the Danish and Italian music industries have different periods and genres in which they express a high degree of diversity. Finally, we can identify the bands that link together the Italian and Danish music scene.

New NERDS publication on right-wing votes and bike network delays

Right-wing Votes Relate to Delays in Bicycle Network Development, by C. Sebastiao & M. Szell, published in Findings

Paris has implemented only 43% of its 2021-2026 bicycle network plan by its 2026 deadline, but the delays are not equally distributed. Correlating political voting and bicycle infrastructure data, we find that boroughs with a higher share of right-wing votes are also boroughs with the largest delays in bicycle infrastructure development. Although the number of voting units is only 17, this correlation is remarkably strong and significant. At the city scale, for each additional 1% of right-wing votes, we find 0.86% less protected bicycle lanes built.

New NERDS publication on fairness of human-AI collaboration in candidate recommendation

Human, Algorithm, or Both? Gender Bias in Human-Augmented Recruiting, by Mesut Kaya & Toine Bogers, published in FAccT ’26: The 2026 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency

Recent years have seen rapid growth in the market for HR technology and AI-driven HR solutions in particular. This popularity has also resulted in increased attention to the negative aspects of using AI to support hiring practices, such as the risk of reinforcing existing biases against vulnerable groups based on gender or other sensitive attributes. Combining human experience with AI efficiency in making recruiting and selection decisions has the potential to help mitigate these biases, but despite a considerable amount of research on fairness in algorithmic hiring, actual empirical evaluations comparing the fairness of human, AI, and human-augmented decision-making remain scarce. In this study, we address this gap by presenting a quantitative analysis of gender bias across three scenarios of a real-world recruitment platform: (1) recruiters searching a CV database manually for relevant candidates, (2) AI-driven matching between candidates and jobs, and (3) a combination of human and AI-driven recruiting. We find that human recruiters produce lists of candidates that are fairer in terms of gender than the AI-only solution, with more deliberation by humans resulting in fairer outcomes. However, the combination of human and AI-driven is more than the sum of its parts and produces the fairest candidate lists: interacting with the slate of recommended candidates first before manually searching for additional candidates has a beneficial effect on the gender fairness of the set of candidates that are viewed, clicked, and contacted afterwards. Our work provides one of the first empirical comparisons of fairness across human, AI, and hybrid recruiting processes, offering evidence to inform the development of more equitable hiring practices and highlighting the importance of human oversight for mitigating bias in algorithmic hiring.

New NERDS paper on drug traffic and migration

Displacement and disconnection: the impact of violence on migration networks and highway traffic in Mexico, by M. Coscia & R. Gutiérrez-Romero, published in Spatial Economic Analysis.

https://www.michelecoscia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-3.png

This paper examines how violence impacts migration flows and the strength of migration networks across Mexico’s 2454 municipalities. Using a novel network algorithm and census data from 2005 to 2020, we detect structural changes in domestic and international migration beyond what net flows reveal. To identify causal effects, homicide rates are instrumented using variation in fuel prices and municipal distance to fuel pipelines, capturing exogenous shocks from large-scale fuel theft. Rising violence led to 1.12 million additional domestic emigrants, 50,200 fewer returnees from the United States, stronger emigration networks and reduced highway traffic linking violent areas to the rest of the country.

 

NERDS at CS2Italy 2026 in Torino

Collage photo showing members of NERDS delivering presentations at the CS2Italy conference. A central picture shows a group photo

NERDS has contributed massively to the CS2Italy conference held in Torino this week. Roberta Sinatra delivered a keynote on “Science of Science in the Age of AI”. Arianna Pera and Elisabetta Salvai gave plenary presentations on visual cultural norms and algorithmic fairness. Many other members gave 12 presentations in parallel sessions about Gender Disparities , LLM agents, Climate narratives, and much more. We are already warming up for CS2Nordics, the incoming Nordic chapter of this conference series.

We have successfully held our first retreat

With NERDS hitting 7 years old and growing over 30 people, it has been long overdue to hold our first retreat. We did so last week at the AI Pioneer Center, in the old astronomic observatory inside Copenhagen’s beautiful botanic garden (plus awesome dinner at Food Club Nørrebro), organized by Jonas, Jan, and Toine.

The retreat was a wonderful event that deepened our social ties, where we learned much more about each other, and discussed what works well or what does not work so well at NERDS.

On all levels, from faculties to long-term NERDS and visitors, we identified issues we want to improve, including diversity and hiring, more internal exchange, website updates, or more formalized tasks with ownership (and PhD duty credits). It was great to see though that we do not have any serious social issues – to the contrary, the retreat was a confirmation of how well we all get along, and how nice a research group can be. ❤️

In the coming weeks we are going to get to work to implement the short-term-implementable issues, keep pushing for improving our long-term issues to make NERDS an even better place, and definitely aim to make the NERDS retreat a recurring experience!

 

Ariel Avanzi has joined NERDS

Ariel joins us as a new Research Assistant. With his background in the physics of complex systems, he will work with Jonas L. Juul on quantifying how networks change.

One important application of Ariel’s work could be in the shipping industry, and the project is funded by two maritime foundations: Orient’s Fund and the Danish Maritime Fund.

We are thrilled to have you on board, Ariel.
Ahoy!

New NERDS publication on transport network growth

The trade-off between directness and coverage in transport network growth, by C. Sebastiao, A. Vybornova, A.R. Vierø, L.M. Aiello & M. Szell, published in Applied Network Science

We systematically study the growth of connected planar networks, quantifying functionality of the growing network structure. We compare random growth with various greedy and human-designed, manual growth strategies. We evaluate our results via the fundamental performance metrics of directness and coverage, finding non-trivial trade-offs between them. Manual strategies fare better than greedy strategies on both metrics, while random strategies perform worst and are unlikely to be Pareto efficient. Centrality-based greedy strategies tend to perform best for directness but are worse than random strategies for coverage, while coverage-based greedy strategies can achieve maximum global coverage as fast as possible but perform as poorly for directness as random strategies. Directness-based greedy strategies get stuck in local optimum traps. These results hold for a number of stylized urban transport network topologies. Our insights are crucial for applications where the order in which links are added to a spatial network is important, such as in urban or regional transport network design problems.

Two New NERDS Papers: Politician Campaigns; and Money Laundering

We have two new publications out!

  1. Disconnect between the public face and the voting behavior of political representatives by Christian Ivert Andersen and Michele Coscia, published in the journal Applied Network Science.

    One of representative democracy’s tenets is that a political candidate runs on a specific platform, which is information the electorate uses to determine whether to vote for them or not. If this promise is to be maintained, it is fundamental that the public face candidates present corresponds to their actions in parliament once elected. Such a promise has been put in question both by scholars, but also by the electorate. In different countries at different times, the people have expressed various degrees of dissatisfaction with democracy: often the feeling is that representatives put their own interests—or the interest of a powerful minority—before the ones of their constituencies. In this paper, we propose a network-based quantitative investigation of this disconnect between the public face and the voting behavior of elected representatives. By using data from Denmark, we can place politicians in two different spaces, determined by their electoral campaign promises on the one hand, and on the other hand by the votes they cast in parliament. We find that our technique makes it possible both to find clear, expected, and consistent left-right divides between the political parties; as well as a larger-than-expected disconnect between the public face and the voting behavior. Our preliminary results indicate that the aggregate voting behavior in parliament of politicians does not match with how they present themselves to the public on the salient issues discussed during the election campaign.
  2. Evaluating fraud detection algorithms in a decentralized scenario by Ada M Gige, Lasse Buschmann Alsbirk, Michele Coscia, published in the journal Royal Society Open Science.

    Financial fraud is an umbrella term including a vast number of illegal activities. These activities involve a significant fraction of the global economy. Traditional investigation techniques are labour-intensive and cannot scale to match the size of the issue. Machine learning has provided effective tools which deliver high accuracy in identifying transactions that could be involved in fraudulent activities. In this paper, we point out that the state-of-the-art in financial fraud detection has been applied to the unrealistic scenario of an omniscient centralized global authority which has access to all bank transactions globally. We propose a more realistic evaluation scenario, one made of two steps: first, the bank flags its own transactions using exclusively information it possesses; then only flagged transactions from all banks are analysed by the governmental authority for potential prosecution. We find that, in such a realistic scenario, the effectiveness of the state-of-the-art method for financial fraud detection decreases. Moreover, we show that in this decentralized scenario, it pays off to use simpler methods than the state-of-the-art, depending on the specific objective function the system wants to ensure.