New Nerds paper out! Congratulations to our PhD student Morten Rahbæk Boilesen on publishing his first article!
Are fast test results preferable to high test sensitivity in contact-tracing strategies? This question is addressed by Morten Rahbæk Boilesen, Kaare Græsbøll and Jonas L. Juul in their modelling study of the dynamics of contact tracing, testing and isolation strategies in epidemic outbreaks. Here is a description of their paper:
During disease outbreaks, public health officials might face a decision on whether to use rapid tests that give quick but sometimes inaccurate results, or slower and more precise tests. This choice matters because delays in diagnosis slow down contact tracing, allowing infected and their potential secondary infections to spread illness longer.
Here, we use mathematical modeling to examine the trade-off between test speed and test accuracy. We use the mathematical model to simulate epidemic outbreaks with different levels of contact tracing efficiency, test turnaround time and test sensitivity. In each case, we evaluate whether disease mitigation is best with slow-and-accurate tests or fast-and-inaccurate tests.
For diseases similar to COVID-19, we find that accurate tests with test turnaround time less than four days generally reduce transmission better than rapid, less reliable tests. However, when contact tracing is highly efficient, faster results become advantageous.We show that if test sensitivity is proportional to the viral loads of the infected, rapid tests become more favourable overall as opposed to modelling the test sensitivity as a constant value independent of the viral loads of the infected.
Finally, our analysis shows that when contact tracing isn’t feasible, neither rapid nor accurate testing outperforms simply having people self-isolate without testing infrastructure.
This work can help guide testing strategy decisions when an epidemic is raging, revealing that prioritizing speed can become a viable strategy to reduce transmission when testing infrastructure is under stress.















